New Launch in Singapore: Can You Really Afford It, and Is It Really a Deal?
By Daniel Wu, CEA Reg No: R070500C | Updated November 2026
Before you ballot, answer these 4 in order:
Can I afford it comfortably — at 4%, not at today's rate — and what does it actually cost to own it?
At this price, is a small new launch really better than a bigger resale — which one will fare better in 5–10 years?
If I buy post-launch or sub-sale, am I paying someone else's early-bird gain?
If I do decide to ballot, what should I choose — high floor and smaller, or lower floor and one size up? Is Level 1 or a penthouse a trap?
If you cannot answer 1, do not answer 2–4 yet. Affordability first, project second, unit last.
Can I really afford the new launch comfortably — and what does it actually cost to own it?
The bank does not test you at today's rate. It tests you at 4%. That is the rule that catches most upgraders.
TDSR: 55% — all your monthly debt payments, including the new mortgage, must stay at or below 55% of gross monthly income. Banks test the new loan at 4% p.a., or the actual rate if higher.
MSR: 30% — for HDB flats and new ECs only, the mortgage alone is capped at 30% of gross income. Private condos use TDSR, not MSR.
Variable income is haircut 30% — commission, bonus and rental are typically counted at 70% in the TDSR calculation.
LTV: 75% on a first loan — at least 5% of the price in cash, a further 20% in cash or CPF. Tenure up to 35 years for private, but full LTV only if tenure is 30 years or less and ends by age 65.
Source: MAS, TDSR / MSR / LTV rules in force Oct 2026.
Banks may let you go to 55%. That does not mean you should.
Use the one-third check as a comfort check: have at least 30% of the price in cash and CPF, keep the mortgage at or below one-third of monthly income, and keep 6–12 months of instalments in cash after you buy. Do NOT use the old '5 times annual income' rule — in Singapore in 2026 almost no condo meets 5x, and it would scare off genuine upgraders.
If the bank says yes at 55% but you are at 50% with no buffer, you are not comfortable — you are stretched.
Illustrative, from Propwise / MAS rules in force Oct 2026: at $12,000 gross monthly household income, TDSR caps all debt at $6,600 a month. At 4% over 30 years, that supports a loan of about $1.38m, or a price of about $1.84m if you had $460,000 for the 25% downpayment. That is a maximum, not a target. Your own income, debts, age and tenure will change it.
Price psf is not the cost. Add, before you ballot:
Buyer's Stamp Duty: 1% to 6% in tiers, top rate above $3m. Source: IRAS.
Legal fees, valuation, mortgage insurance if applicable
Downpayment: 25% total, 5% cash minimum
Progressive payment: you pay in stages as the project builds, and you pay interest only on what has been disbursed — that helps cash flow, but you still need to fund the stages
Maintenance + property tax, every month, even before TOP
Renovation, furniture, and a buffer: 6–12 months of instalments if income drops or rates rise
Ask yourself, in writing:
What is my instalment at 4%, not 2%?
What happens if one income stops for 6 months?
Can I still pay BSD + downpayment + renovation without wiping out CPF / cash?
Am I buying because I can hold it 5–10 years, or because I hope to flip it at TOP?
If the answer to the last one is "flip", stop. That is not a home plan, it is a speculation plan, and SSD, BSD and holding costs will eat it.
2. At this price, is a small new launch really better than a bigger resale? Which will fare longer?
Do not compare psf in isolation. Compare total quantum, usable space, lease, and who will buy it from you in 5–10 years.
September 2026, from URA caveats via PLB Research: new launch median $2,440 psf, condo resale median $1,709 psf. That is a gap of $731 psf, 42.77% above resale. On an illustrative 800 sq ft unit, the gap is $584,800. On an illustrative 1,000 sq ft unit, the gap is $731,000.
Source: PLB Research market feed, checked 1 Nov 2026, private-property figures to 25 Oct 2026.
New-launch figures are URA developer sales (297 units across 49 projects). Condo resale figures are URA resale caveats (1,158 caveats), with new sales and sub-sales left out.
Read that with care: those are two different populations — brand-new units against resale caveats. The gap is a yardstick, not a like-for-like discount on any one home.
In the same area, a comparable new launch is usually 15–30% psf above a comparable resale, not 42%. Since URA's harmonisation ruling in 2024, air-con ledges and other non-liveable areas are no longer included in strata area for new developments, so usable space is broadly comparable.
For any launch, run this comparison with real caveats from the same area, not with a national median:
Small new launch: total quantum, size in usable sq ft, $ psf like-for-like, tenure / lease remaining (fresh 99 years), wait 3–4 years to TOP, minimal renovation, maintenance per month, who buys it in 5–10 years, upcoming supply nearby
Bigger resale: total quantum, size in usable sq ft, $ psf like-for-like, tenure / lease remaining, move in / rent out immediately, renovation needed, maintenance per month, who buys it in 5–10 years, upcoming supply nearby
New launch wins when: you want new, no reno, progressive payment helps cash flow, fresh lease, and you can hold through TOP and the first resale cycle.
Bigger resale wins when: you need space now, you need to move in / rent out now, you can see the actual unit, layout and neighbours, and you can negotiate on price — and the psf gap buys you a whole extra bedroom.
Long run: it is not "new always wins" or "resale always wins". In a Stacked Homes deep dive over five years to late 2022, resale won by a very slim margin: 91% of resale buyers saw gains, versus 89.8% of those who bought new. Source: Stacked Homes. Project, layout, location, lease and supply matter more than the label.
Ask: in 10 years, will the next buyer pay for the size, the layout, the light, the lease — or just for the fact it was once new? New wears off. Size and layout do not.
3. Should I buy post-launch? Am I walking into a trap where agents get paid more to push these?
Short answer: not automatically a trap, but you are no longer buying the launch price. Check who already took the gain.
Developers often start with loss leaders: the first few units in the earliest phases are sold at a lower price, then prices "normalise" in later phases. That does not guarantee prices always rise later. In some cases prices fall in later phases — because they are rushing to meet ABSD deadlines, or because the last few high-quantum units are tough to move.
So for a post-launch / sub-sale unit, check 3 things:
Price vs launch price, same stack. Pull the URA caveats for that exact stack. If the launch buyer bought at $2,100 psf and you are paying $2,450 psf, you are paying their gain. Is the unit worth that to you, as an owner, not as a flip?
Why is it for sale? Developer balance unit, or an owner selling before TOP? A balance unit can be a genuine value buy if the developer needs to clear it before an ABSD deadline. A sub-sale flip is a different risk — you inherit their entry price, plus your own BSD, legal and holding costs.
Your exit clock. If you buy sub-sale, you still face Seller's Stamp Duty if you sell within 4 years — 16% in year 1, 12% in year 2, 8% in year 3, 4% in year 4, for homes bought on or after 4 July 2025 (Source: IRAS) — and you have less time to TOP + MOP / holding. Do not buy a sub-sale hoping to sell at TOP in 12 months and profit — that is the exact window where costs bite hardest.
About agent commission — say it plainly, do not hide it.
New launch: buyer pays nil commission. The developer pays the agent, typically around 2%, but can be up to 5% to clear remaining stocks.
Resale: seller typically pays ~2%, buyer usually pays nil / ~1% under new co-broking practice, depending on agreement.
A few years ago new launch commissions could reach 3–5%. In 2025, from conversations with agents, they are roughly comparable to the 2% for resale, often below 3%, and can take over 9 months for developers to pay.
These commission figures are industry practice as reported to Daniel, not a published MAS / CEA schedule. Treat them as a guide, not a fixed rate.
So commission alone does not explain why an agent recommends a new launch. Low resale supply, no available resale unit at that price, or a genuine developer discount can explain it too.
What to ask any agent, including me: "Show me both — one new launch and one resale in the same area, same budget, with psf, quantum, lease, maintenance, and recent caveats. Show me why you recommend this one, in writing."
If they cannot show you the resale comparison, that is your answer. A consultant shows both. A salesperson shows one.
4. If I do decide to ballot, what should I choose — high floor and smaller, or lower floor and one size up? Is Level 1 or a penthouse a trap?
Decide by purpose first, floor second. Do not let the ballot number decide for you — decide before you get one.
Rank your stacks by layout before ballot day. Set a walk-away price before you go in. If your top 3 stacks are gone, walk away — another launch will come.
Higher floors generally offer better views, breeze, privacy, less pests and noise, and better resale value on paper. Lower floors are cheaper, more convenient, easier for elderly / pets, closer to pool and facilities, and often have more floor space for the money.
But you pay for that view upfront. If a high-floor 2-bedder costs $150,000 more than a low-floor 3-bedder in the same project, the 3-bedder gives you a whole extra room for the next 10 years, and a bigger buyer pool on exit — families need 3 beds, investors do not need a view.
Size usually outlives floor. A view can be blocked by the next GLS site. A bedroom cannot be taken away.
Level 1 — trap, or value?
Not a trap automatically, and not for everyone.
Pros: private patio / garden, pool access, best for families, pets and elderly, easy move-in, usually cheapest entry in the stack.
Cons: privacy, noise, pests, less view, high-rise litter, security, and flood risk in low-lying areas.
The data is surprising: over 10 years to 2024, ground floor units averaged 24.72% gains vs 24.49% for non-ground floor — very little difference in % terms. In a separate Stacked Homes analysis of 6,402 transactions, ground floor averaged 11.23% vs top floor 10.03%, with almost identical holding periods of ~6.5 years. For new-sale to resale, ground floor outperformed top floor, 10.4% vs 7.5% — likely because developers price ground floor lower at launch, so there is more room to grow in % terms.
Source: Stacked Homes.
Translation: paying more for high floor does not guarantee you earn more. Entry price matters more than floor level. % returns are not $ profit — a ground floor unit can win on % and still make less in $ if it started cheaper. Check both.
Choose Level 1 if: you will actually use the patio, you have young kids / elderly / pets, and you accept the privacy trade-off. Avoid it if: privacy and view are why you are upgrading in the first place.
Penthouse — trap, or dream home?
Penthouse units are almost always the priciest in a project, with higher ceilings and sometimes roof terraces.
That is the trap, if you buy it as an investment: highest quantum, smallest buyer pool on exit, highest maintenance, roof terrace upkeep, heat, and the hardest unit to sell quickly if you need to exit.
It is not a trap if: you will live there 10+ years, you love the space and will use it daily, and you can afford it comfortably at 4% without stretching. Then it is a lifestyle buy, and you should judge it as one — not as a "best return" buy.
Before-you-ballot checklist — take this to the showflat:
My 3 ranked stacks, by layout, not by floor
My walk-away psf / quantum, written down before ballot
Total cost to own, not just price: BSD, legal, maintenance, reno, buffer
Resale comparison in the same area, same budget, with caveats
If my top stacks are gone, I walk away — I do not take "whatever is left"
If you are thinking about a new launch, DM ‘LAUNCH’ + the area you are looking at and your household income band, and I will run the 4-question check with you — before you ballot.
Or book a free Personalised Property Consultation via homeanalytics.sg. No obligation to ballot, no obligation to buy.
Daniel Wu | CEA Reg No: R070500C
General information only as at Nov 2026, not financial / legal advice. Check MAS / HDB / CPF / IRAS / URA before deciding.
Sources: MAS, HDB, URA, IRAS, PLB Research / URA caveats, Stacked Homes.